Winning low-probability gambles signals skill, losing high-probability ones signals incompetence.
Risky decisions involving both skill and chance can signal how skilled a person is. People tend to avoid looking unskilled by making certain choices, like favoring long-shots and avoiding sure-things. Losing a gamble with a high chance of success can make someone look incompetent, while winning a gamble with a low chance of success shows skill. People are often risk-averse even for small bets because losing reflects poorly on their skill. How a question is framed can also affect decisions by providing different information on how actions will be seen. The idea of skill signaling can explain many behaviors seen in prospect theory, like probability weighting, loss aversion, and framing.