The study looked at how the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates can help predict future interest rate changes. Traditional theories suggest this difference can predict inflation, but real-world data doesn't always support this. The researchers found that when interest rate differences change a lot, simple models don't work well. By using a more complex model that considers how people feel about risk, they showed that interest rate differences can indeed help predict future interest rate changes, especially when there is a lot of uncertainty in the economy.