Tax cuts lead to minimal short-term changes, but significant long-term responses.
The article explores how people's income changed in response to tax increases in the 1990s. Different methods were used to measure these changes, with a focus on high-income earners. Results show that income responses to tax changes were larger over three-year periods compared to one-year periods. When considering various factors, estimates of income changes ranged from 0 to 0.19 for one-year intervals and about 0.32 for three-year intervals. Including adjacent year tax rates in the analysis increased estimates to 0.30-0.43 for one-year intervals and 0.97-1.37 for three-year intervals. Overall, the study suggests that accurately determining how taxes affect income is complex and estimates can vary greatly.