Positive producer expectations drive significant economic fluctuations, study finds.
The article looks at how producers' expectations affect business cycles. By studying data from different companies, the researchers found that positive expectation shocks lead to changes in production, employment, investment, and capacity utilization. These effects are long-lasting, especially on investment intentions. Producers' expectation shocks can explain 6 to 10% of output fluctuations in the short term, showing their impact on the economy. Adjustment costs and labor market frictions play a role in dampening this impact.