Long-term commodity market volatility linked to historical price trends.
Researchers analyzed volatility in commodity markets using daily price range data spanning over 140 years. They found that a one-factor model was not enough to capture both long-term and short-term volatility components. Although volatility has a small long memory effect, it significantly influences short-term dynamics. Long-run volatility is positively related to past returns, indicating a connection to storage theory. Asymmetry in volatility is not just a short-term occurrence.