Armenia's Economic Outlook Revealed: New Keynesian Model Uncovers Surprising Insights
The researchers used a new method to estimate the New Keynesian output gap for Armenia. Instead of using traditional techniques like time trends or filters, they used a Bayesian approach to separate the trend from the cycle in the data. This allowed them to get a more accurate estimate of the output gap. Comparing their results with other methods, they found that their model-based approach was most useful in real-time analysis. The output gap series they generated matched well with the overall economic situation in Armenia.