China's Carbon Tax Dilemma: Ambitious Goals, Uncertain Outcomes
The article compares how different models predict the effects of a carbon tax in China. They tested various scenarios with low, medium, and high carbon taxes to see how they would impact emissions, energy use, and the economy in the years 2020, 2030, and 2050. All models showed China could meet its 2030 emission target with a carbon tax, but they might struggle to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060—even with high tax rates. The models had different results on the economy, prices, energy use, and carbon reductions, as well as effects on specific industries. These differences were due to variations in model structures, substitution rates, renewable energy levels, and revenue recycling methods.