Monetary policy shocks lead to exchange rate appreciation, study finds.
The study looked at how changes in monetary policy affect exchange rates over time. They used a special model to analyze high frequency monetary policy surprises. The results showed that when the US had a tighter monetary policy, the exchange rate went up. This was true for both normal and unconventional monetary policy periods. From 2008 to 2012, when unconventional policies were used, the exchange rate was affected even more. The exchange rate reached its highest point 3 to 4 months after the policy change, supporting the idea that exchange rates can overshoot their long-term value.