Monetary policy uncertainty drives 40% of historical output volatility since 1980s.
The article explores how government spending and monetary policy changes affect economic volatility. By analyzing historical data, the researchers found that uncertainty about monetary policy has a bigger impact on output and inflation volatility than other policy shocks since the mid-1980s. Specifically, a shock to monetary policy uncertainty explains 40% of output volatility and 25% of inflation volatility. In the long run, a government spending shock has a similar impact on uncertainty as a monetary policy shock, while in the short run, it has about half the impact.