Oil market shocks have asymmetric effects on economy during uncertain times.
The article explores how different types of shocks in the oil market affect the economy, depending on the level of uncertainty. By creating a new measure of oil price uncertainty, the researchers found that supply and demand shocks in the oil market have different impacts on the economy. When oil prices are uncertain, supply and oil-specific demand shocks have a bigger effect on economic activity. Additionally, unexpected increases and decreases in oil prices due to supply shocks have asymmetric effects on the economy, while oil-specific demand shocks do not show this pattern. This shows that how the economy responds to oil market changes depends on the type of shock and the level of uncertainty in the market.