Oil price shocks impact U.S. credit spread, revealing economic cycle connection.
The study looked at how changes in global oil prices affect U.S. credit spreads. They used a special model to see how different types of oil price shocks impact credit spreads over time. The results showed that U.S. credit spreads don't react much to global oil supply shocks, but they do go down when there are U.S. oil supply shocks, demand shocks, or oil market-specific demand shocks. The connection between oil prices and U.S. credit spreads changes with the economy and the U.S. shale oil industry. Different types of oil price shocks affect U.S. credit spreads in different ways. Policymakers and investors can use oil price information to predict changes in U.S. credit spreads.