Iran's fossil fuel use projected to drastically increase carbon emissions by 2039, threatening regional water scarcity.
The article predicts future carbon dioxide emissions from coal, oil, and natural gas in Iran between 1982 to 1920 using a method called long-term memory. It forecasts that by 2039, Iran's carbon dioxide emissions from coal will be around 4.8378 million tonnes, from natural gas around 2,594 million tonnes, and from crude oil about 95.353 million tonnes. Natural gas emissions will be the highest. Overall, carbon emissions from these fuels are expected to rise. Additionally, carbon dioxide emissions from gaseous fossil fuels will hit 169,701 kilotons, from liquid fuels 787,698 kilotons, and from solid fuels 3,605 kilotons by 2039. The study also shows that water evaporation will increase, while rainfall is expected to decrease in Iran and the Middle East by 2030. Such findings can help guide policymakers to make more effective environmental protection decisions.