Long-term interest rates impact stock market returns in developed countries.
The article explores how different economic factors affect stock market volatility in various countries. The researchers found that there are two states of volatility in the markets: one with low volatility and positive returns, and another with high volatility and negative returns. Factors like oil prices, interest rates, and sentiment indices can influence the probability of staying in these states. In developed markets, high oil prices and certain indices suggest a higher chance of staying in the low volatility state, while factors like the VIX index can decrease this probability. Long-term interest rates were found to impact market returns in all countries, but the direction of this impact varies between developed and emerging markets.