Are Major Economic Forecasts Biased? New Study Reveals Surprising Results!
Macroeconomic forecasts from organizations like the IMF and Federal Reserve are often a mix of econometric models and human intuition, making them biased. Recent research shows that different evaluation techniques are needed for comparing forecasts from different sources. For example, comparing forecasts from the Federal Reserve Board and FOMC on inflation, unemployment, and real GDP growth requires alternative tools due to the combination of models and intuition used in generating the forecasts.