The article examines how global economic activity, oil supply, and speculative oil shocks affect the Russian economy. Using a complex statistical model, the researchers found that increases in oil prices due to global economic activity have the strongest positive impact on GDP, investment, and exports in Russia. Real household consumption, imports, and the exchange rate also respond positively to all three types of shocks. Shocks in global economic activity play a major role in shaping the dynamics of Russian macroeconomic variables.