Imbalances, not deficits, trigger current account reversals in developing countries.
The study looked at why countries suddenly reduce their trade deficits. They found that it's not just about short-term factors, but also about how much money a country owes to other countries in the long run. By considering this, they made a new model that predicts these changes better, especially for developing countries. They discovered that it's not just having low foreign assets that causes deficits to shrink, but having less than what is normal for that country. This new model works best for developing countries, while the old models work fine for richer countries.