Economics, Econometrics and Finance
3 years ago

Capital flows and inflation key to predicting India's economic growth quarterly.

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SSRN Electronic Journal
Quarterly Forecasting Model for India’s Economic Growth: Bayesian Vector Autoregression Approach
Tara Iyer, Abhijit Sen Gupta

Paper Summary

A model was created to predict India's economic growth from 2004 to 2018 using real and monetary sector data. The model, based on Bayesian vector autoregression, showed that capital flows and CPI inflation are important for India's GDP growth forecasts. The study suggests that these quarterly models are effective in predicting India's economic growth.

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