Inaccurate Inflation Forecasts in Turkey Challenge Economic Policy Effectiveness
The study tested if people in Turkey can accurately predict future inflation rates using all available information. Results showed that while forecasts were efficient, they were not unbiased, meaning they were not always correct. This means that economic agents in Turkey cannot make accurate predictions about inflation, but professional forecasters consider many factors when making predictions. This suggests that economic policies can be somewhat effective if they take into account these expectations.