Stochastic rainfall model overestimates summer flood risk by 163.5%: study
Stochastic rainfall models are commonly used to predict floods, but their simplifications may affect accuracy. A study in the UK analyzed two river catchments using radar data and models. The rainfall model accurately predicts point-scale statistics but overestimates areal extremes. Despite this, it accurately predicts flow duration and flood frequency curves for medium-sized catchments. However, it significantly overestimates summer peak discharge due to model limitations in representing spatial structure.