Market Signals Predict Corporate Debt Default Losses, Impacting Loan Sizes
The article investigates factors affecting the amount lost when a company defaults on its debt. By analyzing data from U.S. defaults between 1985 and 2008, the researchers developed models to predict these losses. They found that market information from the time of default, like stock returns or distressed debt prices, can help predict the final loss. Surprisingly, larger companies tend to have lower losses, while larger loans result in higher losses. This study provides insights into how different factors influence the amount lost when a company defaults on its debt.