Futures markets lead the way in commodity price discovery revolution.
The study looked at how the prices of commodities in spot and futures markets are related. By analyzing daily returns of six commodity indices, the researchers found that changes in commodity prices show up first in the futures market before affecting the spot market. This suggests that the futures market plays a bigger role in determining commodity prices. Investors and speculators prefer trading in the futures market because it has lower costs and higher leverage. The information then moves from the futures market to the spot market through arbitrageurs, explaining the connection between the two markets.