Scottish Auctions Reveal Rapid Housing Market Changes Before Asking Prices
This paper looks at how people buying and selling houses in Scotland adjust their price expectations based on changes in the housing market. They use data from auctions to understand how buyers and sellers react to market signals. The study shows that the difference between the selling price and the asking price, known as the bid-premium, is influenced by expectations of future price changes, how long a house is on the market, and how often people bid. The bid-premium changes quickly in response to market conditions, reflecting consumers' expectations better than asking prices or final sale prices. During housing market bubbles, the bid-premium fluctuates a lot, while asking and sale prices are more stable.