Engineering
3 years ago

Inflation forecasting model predicts price changes for essential goods in Indonesia.

Advances in economics, business and management research/Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Inflation Forecasting by Commodity Using the Autoreggressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method
Devi Ambar Wati, Nurafni Eltivia, Ludfi Djajanto

Paper Summary

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The goal of the research was to predict monthly inflation in Indonesia for a specific group of products. The researchers used a method called Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to analyze the data. They found that the ARIMA model (12,0,12) was the best for predicting inflation in the future. The forecast for 2020 showed fluctuations in inflation rates throughout the year. This information can help policymakers make decisions to control and stabilize price growth in the economy.