The water budget in the source region of the Yellow River has been affected by recent climate changes. After 1990, there was a decrease in river discharge due to low precipitation, but it increased above normal levels after 2002. The study used a land surface model to analyze water balance from 1960 to 2006. The spatial pattern of precipitation changes played a crucial role in runoff response. The recovery of precipitation after 2002 was mainly due to increased rainfall in the dry area. Evaporation was limited by water availability in the dry area, leading to most of the increased precipitation being evaporated. In contrast, energy availability influenced evaporation in the wet area, resulting in reduced runoff despite some changes in precipitation. These factors combined to create an unfavorable water budget for runoff in the source region in recent years.