Global interest rates declining due to unseen factors, impacting future yield forecasts.
The article presents a model to estimate long-term real interest rate trends in the U.S., the U.K., and Germany. By analyzing data from 1972 to 2022, the researchers found that interest rates in these countries have been decreasing since the 1990s, with global factors playing a significant role. Their model outperforms existing ones by considering drifting interest rate trends and the lower bound constraint. The term premium estimates are stable, showing a tent-shaped risk factor and a positive correlation with inflation uncertainty.