The article presents a method to calculate mining-induced fractures in overburden strata, which can lead to underground water disasters in coal mining. The researchers developed an analytical model that uses the probability integral method to predict subsidence and deformation of the strata. By considering the failure characteristics of the strata, they expressed horizontal deformation using the tensile rate of an elastic plate's neutral plane. The model accurately calculates the distribution of water-flowing fractured zones in the overburden strata, particularly beneficial for inclined coal seam mining. The study applied the method to a case study in Peigou coal mine, determining the height of water-flowing fractured zones. Results showed the model's advantage over conventional methods in predicting fractures in panels with mining schemes, especially in situations where mining intensifies deformation and fracture development.