Economic uncertainty and oil shocks dampen business confidence in OECD countries.
Business confidence in OECD countries is influenced by economic policy uncertainty and oil price changes. The researchers used a method called Augmented Mean Group estimator to analyze this relationship. They found that business confidence decreases when there is more economic policy uncertainty and when oil prices go up or down. Interestingly, positive and negative oil price changes have different effects on business confidence. In Eurozone countries, economic policy uncertainty and oil price changes have a bigger impact on business confidence compared to non-Eurozone countries. This could be because Eurozone countries have more economic coordination and rely more on oil imports.