Beware: Illusion of Predicting Oil Returns Shattered by Data Choice!
The way data is used can make it seem like we can predict oil prices, but that might not be true. When we average daily oil prices within a month, it can make it look like we can predict oil returns. But if we use end-of-month data instead, we don't see strong evidence for predicting oil returns. So, the way we handle data can affect how we think we can predict oil prices.