Future urban growth in Wuhan threatens ecological and agricultural land conservation.
The study developed a model to simulate urban growth in Wuhan, China, considering planning constraints. By adjusting parameters, different scenarios were created. The model showed higher accuracy with planning constraints. Weakening constraints led to urban growth on conservation land. Increasing preference for conservation or urban growth resulted in fragmented urban patterns. The simulation identified potential urban expansion beyond planned areas, providing early warnings. This can help evaluate past urban planning and support future decisions.