Industry model reveals demand drives business cycles, shaping economic productivity trends.
The article examines what causes fluctuations in business cycles, focusing on the impact of technology and demand shocks on productivity. By analyzing industry-level data from 1960 to 2005, the researchers found that demand shocks play a significant role in driving aggregate fluctuations, while technology shocks are industry-specific and have minimal impact at the aggregate level. They also discovered that the decrease in productivity cyclicality in the U.S. after the mid-1980s can be attributed to a reduction in the size of demand shocks.