Economics, Econometrics and Finance
3 years ago

Technology Shock Dominates US Interest Rates, Improving Monetary Policy Models

SSRN Electronic Journal
The Natural Real Rate of Interest and Monetary Policy: New Evidence for the US
Ella Kavanagh, Sheng Zhu, Jun Gao

Paper Summary

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The researchers found that the natural real interest rate in the US was mainly influenced by technology changes from 1947 to 2017. They also discovered that adjusting the Taylor rule to account for shifts in the natural rate improved interest rate predictions.