Real Exchange Rate Misalignment Predicts Currency Crises in Nigeria.
The study looked at whether the real exchange rate misalignment in Nigeria can predict currency crises. They used various economic indicators to create a model that predicts the likelihood of a crisis happening. The results showed that when the real exchange rate is misaligned, the chances of a currency crisis increase. Other factors like volatile exchange rates, falling oil prices, rising debt, and declining current account balance also contribute to the risk of a crisis. The study suggests that monitoring the Naira's value compared to its ideal level can help prevent or address currency crises in Nigeria.