Future Climate of Baltic Sea Region Faces Uncertainties and Limitations
General circulation models are used to predict future climate changes, but they have low spatial resolution. To study the future climate of the Baltic Sea region, researchers use two methods: regional climate models nested in GCMs and statistical relations between large-scale and small-scale variables. Uncertainties in climate models include future land use, greenhouse gas concentrations, input data limitations, and weather chaos. The accuracy of predicting regional climate futures is limited by natural climate variability. In the Baltic Sea area, limitations include the absence of an oceanic component in RCMs and poor representation of aerosol forcing and land use changes.