Stock returns and interest rates predict future economic changes accurately.
Financial markets and interest rates can help predict future economic changes. By combining stock returns and interest rate spreads, we can forecast upcoming shifts in inflation, output, consumption, and industrial production. The best predictions are made 12 months in advance. Different types of stocks provide varying levels of insight into these economic changes. Interest rate spreads are crucial for accurate forecasting, even though excluding them has minimal impact. In some cases, models using only interest rate spreads perform better than those incorporating stock returns.