French Government Bonds Predict Future Interest Rates and Inflation Changes.
The term structure of French government bonds from 1980 to 1995 doesn't provide much information about future interest rate and inflation changes. However, from 1985 to 1995, certain bond maturities do contain useful information. Spreads compared to 2-year rates predict short-term rate changes, while spreads compared to 3-year rates predict both short-term and long-term rate changes. Spreads between 2-year and 1-year rates, 5-year and 1-year rates, and 4-year and 2-year rates are the most informative for predicting future inflation rate changes.