Futures markets stabilize commodity prices, revealing nonlinear dynamics and codependence.
The article explores how futures markets affect commodity prices, focusing on soybeans and corn in the US from 1980 to 2019. By using advanced statistical models, the researchers found that futures contracts can help stabilize prices, especially for nearby contracts. They also discovered that there are complex relationships between futures and spot prices, with evidence of nonlinear dynamics and codependence. Additionally, the study revealed that the basis between futures and spot prices changes over time, impacting their convergence. Overall, the findings provide new insights into how futures and spot prices are determined in commodity markets.