Predicting success: How we judge decisions accurately using counterfactuals
People can judge why someone succeeded or failed in making decisions by imagining what would have happened if they had chosen differently. In experiments, participants predicted outcomes based on different paths taken by an agent. The results showed that people's judgments were more accurate when considering what could have happened (counterfactuals) rather than just what might happen (hypotheticals). This suggests that we often think about what could have been to understand why things turned out the way they did.