Stratospheric biases in forecast systems hinder accurate long-term weather predictions.
The stratosphere can affect surface weather predictability, but forecast systems often have biases in representing stratospheric processes. Many models show warm temperature biases in the stratosphere, incorrect polar vortex strength, and cold regions in the upper atmosphere. Tropical stratospheric anomalies decay too quickly in forecast systems. In the Northern Hemisphere, sudden stratospheric warming events are underestimated, while in the Southern Hemisphere, the timing of polar vortex breakdown is often predicted too early. Models with lower atmospheric heights have worse biases. Most low-top models underestimate the wave driving that impacts the polar vortex strength. Identifying these biases can help improve forecast systems and our understanding of stratospheric influences on weather.