Flawed weather forecasts could leave millions unprepared for extreme climate events
The article examines errors in forecasting systems related to the stratosphere, which can impact weather predictions. The researchers found that many forecast systems have inaccuracies in predicting stratospheric temperatures and polar vortex strength. They also discovered that models with lower atmospheric heights tend to have more significant biases. In the Northern Hemisphere, sudden stratospheric warming events are underestimated, while in the Southern Hemisphere, the timing of polar vortex breakdown is often predicted too early. These findings can help improve forecast models and enhance our understanding of how the stratosphere influences weather predictions.