New model accurately predicts U.S. inflation, outperforming expert forecasts.
The article presents a new model for predicting current inflation rates in the U.S. It uses only a few key factors and is tested with real-time data. The model's accuracy improves as more information becomes available, and it performs better than other forecasting methods. In comparisons, the model's predictions for inflation rates are more accurate than those from other sources like the Blue Chip consensus and the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The model's accuracy is similar to the Federal Reserve's Greenbook across different inflation measures.