Currency variance risk premiums predict foreign exchange appreciation and stock returns.
The study shows that currency and stock market movements can be predicted by different types of risk premiums. Currency variance risk premiums can predict currency appreciation over 6 months, while stock variance risk premiums can predict stock market movements over 1 month. These risk premiums are not strongly correlated with each other, suggesting they are separate phenomena. Interestingly, currency risk premiums do not predict stock returns. The researchers explain these findings using a model that considers local and global economic uncertainties, showing that currency uncertainty affects stock returns in different ways.