Implied volatility outperforms GARCH model in predicting long-term financial volatility.
The study looked at how well two models predict financial volatility in stock market futures. They used data from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes and found that the GARCH model is good at short-term predictions, while implied volatility is better for long-term predictions. The GARCH model is useful for predicting volatility in the near future, while implied volatility is better for predicting volatility further ahead. This means that option prices can give a more complete picture of market information, making implied volatility a more reliable way to predict future volatility.