Model-free Implied Volatility Beats Model-based in Predicting Market Volatility.
The article examines different ways of estimating implied volatility in the Chinese option market to see which method contains more useful information for predicting future volatility. The researchers found that implied volatilities estimated with a direct estimation approach have the most predictive power. These implied volatilities are especially effective during stable market periods and work well regardless of investor sentiment. Additionally, implied volatility can help predict crash risk in the market.