Revolutionizing Macroeconomic Forecasting in Chile: Bayesian Models Outperform Traditional Methods
The article evaluates different models for predicting economic factors in Chile using Bayesian econometrics. The researchers found that using a DSGE model produced accurate forecasts for inflation, output gap, and monetary policy rate within a one-year timeframe. Priors for parameter estimates were especially helpful for predicting inflation and the monetary policy rate. However, the standard reduced-form Keynesian model performed poorly. Univariate models were better at forecasting the real exchange rate gap compared to multivariate models.