High Credit Growth Linked to Banking Crises in Fragile Financial Systems
High credit growth can lead to banking crises if the financial system is fragile due to factors like high leverage, asset price surges, and weak supervision. A study of 77 countries from 1973-2009 found that in advanced economies, high credit growth combined with high leverage and weak regulation increases the likelihood of a banking crisis. Other indicators of financial fragility also play a role in predicting banking crises, with varying significance depending on the country and time period.