Financial fragility model predicts cyclical crashes driven by declining prudence.
The article models financial fragility and money following a crash, showing how high leverage leads to instability. The risk of crashes is determined by financial fragility and capacity utilization. Crashes cause sudden drops in stock prices and financial assets. The model includes government liabilities, common stock, and bank loans. Wage inflation depends on unemployment or government policies. Goods prices are influenced by markup and labor productivity. Goods inflation affects demand and bank rates are based on their own markup. The model also considers the impact of limited carbon emissions on goods production.