Emerging Europe hit hardest by credit shocks from Euro Area and U.S.
The study looked at how economic shocks from the euro area and the U.S. affect credit and output in other countries. They used a special model to separate loan supply shocks from other economic shocks. The results showed that loan supply shocks have a bigger impact on credit and output than demand shocks. This leads to less borrowing and financial growth in the long term. Countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe, as well as the Commonwealth of Independent States, are most affected by these shocks. Foreign shocks from the U.S., UK, and certain European regions play a big role in the economic trends of the euro area, while shocks from the euro area and China affect the U.S. economy.