Unveiling the Art of Decision Making in the Face of Uncertainty
The article explains how decisions are made when there is risk and uncertainty involved. It uses decision trees to show different paths and outcomes for decisions made by organizations or nature. The method of drawing a decision tree is described, and it is shown that forecasting outcomes is not always precise. Risk is linked to the likelihood of different results, while uncertainty arises when outcomes are hard to predict. Decisions in uncertain situations should consider the potential outcomes. The article also discusses using the risk/utility relationship when probabilities are unknown. Overall, decision trees help in understanding the risks and gains of different choices.