Financial market volatility predicts exchange rate and macroeconomic fluctuations.
The article explores how financial market volatility and macroeconomic variability are connected. By studying Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, the researchers found that stock and bond return volatility can predict exchange rate volatility. They also discovered that volatility in some financial markets can explain fluctuations in certain macroeconomic measures, and vice versa. Additionally, Japan stands out with lower bond market volatility and higher foreign exchange volatility, which do not align with macroeconomic volatility.