Death of Phillips Curve: Unemployment and Inflation Not Linked After All
The Phillips Curve, which shows a tradeoff between unemployment and inflation, is not supported by evidence. The relationship between unemployment and inflation is actually positive, with a lag of a year or two. The NAIRU is estimated to be around 3.7 percent, achievable only with zero inflation. This relationship has been stable for over four decades. The search for the Phillips Curve has confused economists, students, and policymakers for years, leading to misguided policies in the past.